Sun City Stats

From October 2 until today, 11/29/07 the following activities took place in SCPD:

There are 204 active listings from $255,000 for a remodeled Hummel (1128') to $996,000 for a Tuscany on the Golf Course.

There are 15 pending sales from $299,000 (list price) for a Barbados (1380') to $1,150.000 for a Marseilles (2900') on the Golf Course.

Of the pending sales 1 was under $300,00
6 were between $300,000 and $400,000
6 were between $400,000 and $500,000
1 was between $700,000 and $800,000
1 was over $800,000

There were 17 properties that closed escrow between Oct. 2 and today, from $255,000 for a Gorham (1157') to $840,000 for a Portofino on the Golf Course.

Of the solds 3 were under $300,000
8 were between $300,000 and $400,000
1 was between $400,000 and $500,000
3 were between $500,000 and $600,000
1 was between $600,000 and $700,000
1 was between $800,000 and $900,000

New in the Desert

The Inn on El Paseo is closed due to lease problems.
Panera Bread is ready to open on 111 in La Quinta.
Blue Ember is a new high end restaurant at Rancho Las Palmas Hotel.
Back Street Bistro on El Paseo is reopening.

The Great News is that Heather, the Marketplace leasing agent told me that the have 9 interested parties. She will let me know when one is leased and I will let you know here, on my blog. If you have a business that you would like to see open at the Marketplace, comment on my blog and I will relay the info. to her.

Negative Media

On Sept. 2007 an article entitled " New Mortgage Foreclosures Set Record", Martin Crutsinger provided the following summary of a speech given by Doug Duncan, the chief economist for the Nat'l. Mortgage Bankers Assn. Here's how it was reported:

" The number of homeowners receiving foreclosure notices hit a record high in the spring, driven up by problems with subprime mortgages. The MBA reported Thurs, that mortgage holders starting the foreclosure process in April-June quarter reached 0.65%, marking the third consecutive quarter that this figure has set an all-time high.
The delinquency rate has risen to 5.12%...the worsening performance was driven by two factors--heavy losses in the Midwest states and the collapse of previously booming housing markets in CA, FL, NV, AZ...Analysts said the problems in the formerly red hot housing markets of CA, Fl, NV, AZ reflected in part speculators walking away from mortgages they can no longer afford."

This article ends with the negative media's favorite theme for scaring their readers and/or listeners:"Two million people will face foreclosure in the next two years."

Here are the numbers that the negative media did NOT report from Duncan's speech:
1. 35% of the homes in the U.S. do NOT have a mortgage
2. Some 94.88% of the loans ARE performing.
3. The foreclosure problem in this country is really a story about 7 states.
4. The biggest foreclosure problems are in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. These are manufacturing states that had horrible job losses. Since 2001, Michigan has lost 300,000 jobs. These states probably would have had problems no matter what the market was doing.
5. the other four states-- CA, Fl, NV and AZ experience significant overbuilding. 25% of the foreclosures in these states are on properties that are held by investors who were speculating.
6. In the other 43 states, foreclosures have fallen in 2007 from 2006 (from Michael Clawson, VP, Central Texas Mortgage)



Sun City Palm Desert , on average, is down only 3 1/2 % from Aug thru Oct. 06 and for the same period in 07. We do have several properties in foreclosure--mostly because of speculators.

A Perspective on real estate headlines

Many people ask me about the current real estate headlines and what they mean to buyers and sellers. Keep in mind that the media has been making dire predictions about real estate for decades:

1969 "the goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans. The typical new house today costs about $28,000."
Business Week

1977 " The median price of a home today is approaching $50,000. Housing experts predict price rises in the future won't be that great"
National Business

1985 "the golden-age of risk free run-ups in home prices is gone"
Money Magazine

1996 Defense cuts had triggered steep home price declines. " A home is where bad investment is."
San Francisco Examiner

In the three years following that last statement, California home prices rose 19.7%, wiping out the losses of the early 90's and ending the decade with a net gain of 9.35%.

According to CAR Annual Median Sales Price of Existing Single Family Home:

1985 $119,860
2000 $241,350
2002 $316,130
2004 $450,000
2006 $556.640

New tenant coming next to Sherwin Williams

H&R Block has signed a lease for the space next to Sherwin Williams, in front of The Comfort Suites on Washington St. The leasing agent told me that they are looking at a restaurant, but they do not have a signed lease.

Fresh and Easy

Six "Fresh and Easy" markets are opening in neighborhoods near us. These are smallish stores hat will include gourmet-prepared foods along with staples such as milk, bread and organic met and vegetables. The company says the stores will be environmentally friendly, using solar panels and especially designed freezers to reduce emissions.

Several Fresh and Easy Neighborhood Markets will be in the Coachella Valley, including, Palm Springs, Calle Tampico and Desert Club Dr. in La Quinta, Fred Waring and Jefferson St. in La Qunita and 50th and Van Buren in Coachella.

It is tough to sell a home today

Because of the large inventory ( over 8,000 ) in the valley and (187 in Sun City Palm Desert) ,because the buyers seem to be on the sidelines and because the builders are giving such great incentives, sellers must be really ready to sell.



Although all of us would like to get the most for our homes, realistically if a seller really wants to sell in this market, he will probably not get his wanted price.



Besides price, sellers should be aware that buyers want everything--granite counters, wood shutters, custom paint and a home in pristine condition. A seller should go out to the curb and really look at his property from the entrance to the rear yard. I



If the home has tired landscaping it will be an immediate turnoff. If the front door is dirty, again it is an immediate turnoff. Windows should be washed, tile floors and carpets should be professionally cleaned and all clutter should be eliminated. Remove family photos from furniture and walls; plant lots of colorful flowers in pots or in the ground; paint desert colors( buyers are tired of white). In essence, make your home look like a model home.



Buyers are in the driver's seat--so sellers need to pay attention to details.

Sun City Goes Outside Sphere

With no discussion the Local Area Formation Commission voted on Oct. 25 to uphold the Palm Desert City Council's request to remove Sun City Palm Desert from its sphere of influence.
The move removes any possibility of Palm Desert annexing Sun City Palm Desert. I guess it was too expensive for us to utilize Palm Desert city services. Oh, well, I think Riverside County services are great.